Jeff Heynen, directing analyst at Infonetics Research, has noted that "In the passive optical network (PON) market, operators took a break from purchasing in the first quarter of 2009 to ingest capacity and focus on subscriber acquisition. Periodic dips like this are normal in the PON market, especially following periods of sustained optical line terminal (OLT) deployments. The continued shift from copper- to fiber-based broadband access will drive growth in the PON market around the world. Meanwhile, this shift continues to take its toll on the broadband aggregation market, a market that enjoyed solid growth for nearly a decade. Between the current economic climate, the shift in subscribers' preferences for mobile broadband connections, and slower subscriber growth in mature markets, the broadband aggregation market will continue to feel downward pressure."
Despite a 12% increase in worldwide Gigabit PON (GPON) manufacturer revenues in first-quarter 2009, the overall PON market dropped 14% from fourth-quarter 2008, dragged down by significant on-year declines in worldwide broadband PON (BPON) and Ethernet PON (EPON) revenues, according to Infonetics Research. The overall PON market was up 38% on year from the first quarter of 2008.
In the very dynamic GPON market, Alcatel-Lucent and Huawei Technologies again increased revenue share in the first quarter. Alcatel-Lucent, Huawei and Motorola are expected to continue to pull away from the pack over the next couple of quarters, the research firm said.
By 2013, Infonetics Research forecast total worldwide PON revenues are to grow to US$4.6 billion.
Infonetics Research also reported that the macroeconomic slowdown impacted broadband aggregation DSL port shipments (from DSLAMs, NGDLCs, and MSAPs) in the first quarter, down 7% sequentially, as operators chose to sweat their existing DSL infrastructure assets and postpone or even cancel planned upgrades. With most developed world countries at or near the saturation point for DSL subscribers, growth is expected to come from emerging markets, primarily the Middle East, Central and Latin America, Russia, and Eastern Europe.
For the first time ever, Huawei surpassed Alcatel-Lucent in DSL revenues and ports shipped in the first quarter. It also surpassed Alcatel-Lucent in optical network hardware revenues. Huawei's DSL shipments were buoyed by China-based operators' focus on rolling out premium broadband services, and by growth in emerging markets.
VDSL port shipments are expected to grow steadily over at least the next few years, as operators deliver higher-margin premium broadband services to subscribers to support IPTV, VoIP, and online video services, said Infonetics Research.
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