The worldwide market change towards higher data-rate networks and associated handset availability has meant that by 2012, super 3G devices will become the largest selling handset type, according to Informa Telecoms & Media.
The latest edition of Informa's flagship report, entitled Future Mobile Handsets, reveals that while the rate of overall worldwide mobile handset growth will slow from 2008, super 3G devices will account for 35.8% of all handset sales in 2012, up from only 1.8% in 2007.
Overall, the global handset market has more than doubled in 6 short years, reaching 974.7 million handset volume sales in 2006. This buoyant growth is expected to slow from 2007 onwards, with annual growth rates eventually dipping under 10% from 2008.
Total handset sales are forecast to pass the 1 billion mark for the first time in 2007, to reach an unprecedented 1,105.5 million, according to Informa. Global volume sales are not about to go in decline, rather there will be a degree of levelling out in shipment numbers to reach a still remarkable 1.452 billion units by 2012, a CAGR of just 5.6%. But the market has become polarised.
On the one hand, the emerging economies are experiencing large increases in subscriber numbers, driven by healthier economies and the availability of low-cost, entry-level handsets. They present a good opportunity to keep headline sales figures healthy, but the issue then becomes one of available margins. Yet in more developed regions with high penetration rates, growth is largely restricted to a more active replacement of handsets for those with leading designs and enhanced technical capabilities.
To further aid growth in replacement markets, efficient handset segmentation will become increasingly important for promoting the adoption of advanced services that are being made possible by the network speeds offered by 3G networks and beyond.While handset manufacturers are basing their business models on low margins and high-volume supply for basic phones and low feature phones, they are currently banking on high margins for feature rich phones, smartphones, value-added service (VAS) phones and mobile broadband devices supporting super 3G and higher generations.
Given that the cost of these devices is still relatively high, manufacturers are forced to base their profit on the value of the device rather than on volume,commented Dave McQueen, Principal Analyst at Informa Telecoms & Media.
For further information on Future Mobile Handsets - 9th edition, please visit www.informatm.com/fmh
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