Mobile data and emerging markets are key to continued growth in the telecoms market, says Analysys Mason

The worldwide telecoms market will grow at a 6% CAGR to reach US$2.4 trillion in revenues in 2013, according to Analysys Mason. This growth will be driven by mobile data services. Communication service providers (CSPs) are launching 3G networks in many emerging markets, such as China and India, and LTE technology will become available in most mature markets during the next few years. Analysys Mason has predicted that mobile data traffic will grow at a 131% CAGR through 2013.

Roz Roseboro, Senior Analyst at Analysys Mason, said, "While mobile data presents the greatest revenue opportunity for operators, it could also be their biggest challenge. They must find ways to monetize that traffic so that all of the value doesn't go to device manufacturers, such as Apple and Nokia, and content owners. Flat-rate, 'all-you-can-eat' plans break the link between traffic and revenues, so are not a sustainable solution."

Analysys Mason found that CSPs have managed their costs successfully in a difficult environment. The global telecoms services market grew by 5% in 2008 to reach US$1.8 trillion in revenues, despite the economic downturn. Even more encouraging was the on-year growth in EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization), which stood at a very impressive 10%, the firm said.

The research firm noted that mobile services continue to be the leading source of revenues. Mobile voice services accounted for 36% of global service revenues in 2008, and mobile data services accounted for 10%, while traditional voice services represented only 21%.

There are more than twice as many mobile subscribers in the world as there are traditional voice lines – four billion versus two billion. In emerging markets, mobile services tend to account for an even larger share of service revenues – up to 58%, in some cases. The mature markets of North America, Western Europe and developed Asia Pacific accounted for 70% of global telecoms revenues in 2008, but the emerging markets registered greater growth rates. Sub-Saharan Africa, the Middle East and North Africa, Central and Latin America, emerging Asia Pacific, and Central and Eastern Europe all achieved double­-digit revenue growth in 2008.

The top-ten CSPs accounted for 44% of global revenues in 2008. All of the top-ten operators, except China Mobile, are based in mature markets, but their sources of revenues vary. AT&T, NTT DoCoMo, China Mobile and KDDI generate most of their revenues in their home markets, while the leaders in Western Europe: Deutsche Telekom, Telefonica, France Telecom, Vodafone and Telecom Italia have significant businesses outside their home markets.