Google's (GOOG) Android mobile operating system was released more than a year ago, midst high expectations it would change the smart phone market. But the big transformation never materialized – until now.
ChangeWave's December 9-14 survey of 4,068 consumers shows the Android operating system roiling the smart phone market, with Motorola's new Droid smart phone the biggest and most immediate beneficiary.
Among respondents who currently own a smart phone, 4% say they're currently using Google's Android operating system – a 3-pt jump since our survey in September.
But more importantly, 21% of those planning to buy a smart phone in the next 90 days say they'd prefer to have the Android OS on their new phone – a monstrous 15-pt jump in just three months.
To put this in context, three months ago Android OS was tied for last place in consumer preference among the major mobile operating systems. But since then it has surged into second place ahead of all competitors except the iPhone OS X (28%) – which remains the number one choice for operating systems, although down 4-pts from previously.
Here's a look at the change in OS preferences among future smart phone buyers:
In contrast to the Google Android surge, the RIM OS (18%; up 1-pt) is holding steady and the Palm OS/ Web OS (3%) and Windows Mobile (6%) are each down 3-pts since the September survey.
These findings have major implications for smart phone manufacturers – but it's important to note that they are occurring at a time of robust overall growth for the industry.
An Ever Expanding Market
Forty-two percent of respondents now report they own a smart phone – up 3-pts since September.
Going forward, 12.8% of respondents say they plan on buying a smart phone in the next 90 days – the second highest percentage ever recorded in a ChangeWave survey.
Smart Phone Manufacturer Market Share
Current Market Share. Research In Motion (RIMM; 39%) continues to be the smart phone market share leader, down 1-pt since our previous survey in September. At the same time, number two Apple (AAPL; 31%) has edged up 1-pt since September. We note that Apple has experienced continuous market share growth every quarter since the iPhone launch two-and-a-half years ago.
Palm (PALM; 6%), after holding steady in the previous survey, has slid 1-pt since September.
Future Market Share. Going forward, the Motorola (MOT) Droid stands out as the biggest and most immediate beneficiary of the enormous wave of new demand for the Android OS.
Motorola (13%) is registering a huge 12-pt jump in terms of future buying – the first increase for Motorola in a ChangeWave consumer smart phone survey in three years.
While not nearly as dramatic, HTC also shows an uptick in planned buying (from 5% to 9%) that corresponds with the November release of their new Droid Eris model.
The strong momentum for Android can best be seen in the following chart, which summarizes the huge transformation in consumer planned buying trends since September.
Apple. While Apple's share of planned smart phone purchases (32%) is down 4-pts since September, it remains the market leader going forward. Moreover, in the 6 months since the iPhone 3GS was launched to enormous fanfare, Apple's planned buying has fallen just 12-pts from its high (44% to 32%) – far less than the 26-pt drop we saw in the six months after the 2008 iPhone 3G launch. In short, the current survey shows Apple is still excellently positioned to outperform in the consumer smart phone market going forward.
Research In Motion. Unlike a year ago when a slew of new Blackberry products were creating a wave of momentum for Research In Motion, RIM's share of consumer planned purchases going forward (21%) is actually down 6-pts. But we note that RIM has several new Blackberries expected in first half 2010 – including updated versions of their Tour, Pearl, Bold, and Curve models – and that should help stem the rising Google Android tide and the relentless advancement of the iPhone among consumers.
Palm. Six months after the June Pre launch, Palm's share of planned smart phone purchases has slowed (from 8% in September to 4% in the current survey). Palm is clearly caught in a squeeze between the surging Android and its two most powerful smart phone competitors, RIM and Apple. Short term, Palm's biggest countermove is the launch of one or more new models on Verizon and then AT&T, from which it expects a much-needed momentum boost.
Cell Phone Customer Satisfaction
When it comes to satisfaction levels, the Apple iPhone continues to lead all other major cell phone manufacturers, with 74% of owners reporting they're Very Satisfied with their iPhone. RIM ranks second with 42% saying they're Very Satisfied, down 1-pt since September.
We also took a look at consumer satisfaction levels based upon the type of OS they report having on their smart phone. Here's what we found:
Note that the Very Satisfied rating for smart phones using Palm's new Web OS (i.e., the Pre) was 58%, while for smart phones using the older Palm OS it was just 29%. (Currently, the vast majority of Palm owners still use the older Palm OS.)
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