The handset vendors are still saying that it is a frosty market out there but there is a spring in their step as second-quarter 2009 results start to pour in, according to ABI Research.
"In second-quarter 2009, 269 million handsets were shipped," said Jake Saunders, VP for forecasting at ABI Research. "That bodes well for the second half of 2009. Shipments should build sequentially in a constructive manner with fourth-quarter 2009 potentially returning the industry to better sales form."
North America may be struggling to shrug off its economic woes but Asian economies have been lifted by regional stimulus packages and by an anticipation of improved retail sales conditions in the latter part of the second half. ABI Research is revising downwards its forecast 2009 contraction to 7.5% from 8.1% (US$1.11 billion).
Samsung Electronics and LG Electronics (LGE) did particularly well. LGE's market share notched up 2.2 percentage points to 11.1%, Samsung, 1.45 percentage points to 19.4%. Nokia staged a remarkable swing in fortunes to achieve a 1.67-percentage point increase to 38.3%. Nokia is doing all it can to get a number of smartphone models into the market.
"It is well documented that smartphones are proving to be one of the main engines of growth, but they are not just benefiting first-tier players," said practice director Kevin Burden. "A number of third-tier vendors are also making headway in a competitive market, including Apple and High Tech Computer (HTC) but also vendors such as Huawei Technologies and ZTE. While a consolidation is widely expected in the industry, it will not be happening in 2009."
The pressures for consolidation may not necessarily come from tightening shipment volumes but also from greater integration of hardware, OS and applications development. ASPs for smartphones are higher than the overall average, and have supported R&D to date; but in such a competitive environment, the R&D price tag can only go up.
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